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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

However the latest race is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent also-rans improving together. In an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still