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Growing apprehensions have emerged regarding the potential of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa neighbors, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as aggressive language has intensified in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for access to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has triggered a fierce verbal exchange.

Ethiopian Prime Minister initially stated publicly in last year that his country's access to the sea was an crucial concern, comments that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the neighboring nations have frequently been strained. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, making it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a border war broke out in which over a hundred thousand people died.

Latest Comments from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and hinted at the desire to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing access to the sea as a due to Eritrea's separation would be "corrected soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrea's Answer to the Statements

Amid ongoing threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been limited to short statements on X from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea labeling it "risky" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a approach of retaking lost territory.

Government spokespeople alerted on 16 September that attempts to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Ground

There have been few indications of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, national TV has displayed training completions of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The director of staff section of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an interview that the army was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Historical Background of the Tension

For over fifty years from 1890, Eritrea was administered by Italian colonisers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then managed by the British military before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

But in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this arrangement and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle ensued, finishing with the government's loss in 1991. Sovereignty was then confirmed by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their common border, causing hostilities in 1998.

Though this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors continued at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The two signed a declaration that the war was over – a move that gained Abiy the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then cooperators in the country's previous civil war in the northern region.

But diplomatic connections have since broken down anew.