Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
